TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Sparta (IL) w/Steeleville | Confluence Prep Academy Charter |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 29.3 | 17.6 |
| PA / GAME | 28.0 | 33.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +3.9 | -35.0 |
| SOS | +0.4 | +25.9 |
| POWER | +4.1 | -25.9 |
SPARTA (IL) W/STEELEVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Sparta (IL) w/Steeleville finished the job, as Sparta (IL) w/Steeleville and Confluence Prep Academy Charter finished 74-28. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 34-20 final.
The actual margin was 46 points versus MOFO's 14.5-point projection. That produced a 31.5-point margin error, with score errors of 39.6 for Sparta (IL) w/Steeleville and 8.0 for Confluence Prep Academy Charter.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SPARTA (IL) W/STEELEVILLE
MOFO leans toward Sparta (IL) w/Steeleville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 30.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 14.5-point margin, with Sparta (IL) w/Steeleville carrying a 87% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Sparta (IL) w/Steeleville enters at 29.3 points per game compared with 17.6 for Confluence Prep Academy Charter. Sparta (IL) w/Steeleville also allows 5.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.4 for Sparta (IL) w/Steeleville and +25.9 for Confluence Prep Academy Charter. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low — no season data.
01Sparta (IL) w/Steeleville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Confluence Prep Academy Charter has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 30.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.