TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Carrollton | Cole Camp |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 29.3 | 23.3 |
| PA / GAME | 21.4 | 27.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +20.7 | -17.3 |
| SOS | -18.8 | +12.7 |
| POWER | +14.1 | -12.9 |
CARROLLTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Carrollton finished the job, as Carrollton and Cole Camp finished 48-8. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 31-20 final.
The actual margin was 40 points versus MOFO's 11.1-point projection. That produced a 28.9-point margin error, with score errors of 17.0 for Carrollton and 11.9 for Cole Camp.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CARROLLTON
MOFO leans toward Carrollton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 27.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 11.1-point margin, with Carrollton carrying a 81% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Carrollton enters at 29.3 points per game compared with 23.3 for Cole Camp. Carrollton also allows 6.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -18.8 for Carrollton and +12.7 for Cole Camp. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Carrollton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Cole Camp has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 27.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.