TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Stockton with Sheldon | Clever |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 29.9 | 25.3 |
| PA / GAME | 22.6 | 19.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +20.6 | +8.1 |
| SOS | -14.7 | -4.7 |
| POWER | +15.5 | +6.5 |
CLEVER WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Clever finished the job, as Stockton with Sheldon and Clever finished 7-28. MOFO's pick of Stockton with Sheldon missed; the model had projected a 25-23 final.
The actual margin was 21 points versus MOFO's 2.1-point projection. That produced a 23.1-point margin error, with score errors of 18.3 for Stockton with Sheldon and 4.9 for Clever.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD STOCKTON WITH SHELDON
MOFO leans toward Stockton with Sheldon because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.1-point margin, with Stockton with Sheldon carrying a 57% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Stockton with Sheldon enters at 29.9 points per game compared with 25.3 for Clever. Clever's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -14.7 for Stockton with Sheldon and -4.7 for Clever. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Stockton with Sheldon owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Clever has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.