TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Jefferson (Festus) | Central (Park Hills) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 26.4 | 22.5 |
| PA / GAME | 29.4 | 27.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -11.5 | -15.6 |
| SOS | +4.5 | +11.8 |
| POWER | -10.0 | -11.5 |
CENTRAL (PARK HILLS) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Central (Park Hills) finished the job, as Jefferson (Festus) and Central (Park Hills) finished 7-27. MOFO's pick of Jefferson (Festus) missed; the model had projected a 27-26 final.
The actual margin was 20 points versus MOFO's 1.3-point projection. That produced a 21.3-point margin error, with score errors of 20.2 for Jefferson (Festus) and 1.1 for Central (Park Hills).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD JEFFERSON (FESTUS)
MOFO leans toward Jefferson (Festus) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.3-point margin, with Jefferson (Festus) carrying a 54% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Jefferson (Festus) enters at 26.4 points per game compared with 22.5 for Central (Park Hills). Central (Park Hills)'s defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.5 for Jefferson (Festus) and +11.8 for Central (Park Hills). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Jefferson (Festus) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Central (Park Hills) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.