TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Central (New Madrid County) | Caruthersville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 22.0 | 28.0 |
| PA / GAME | 24.8 | 27.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -8.4 | -11.1 |
| SOS | +2.5 | +10.6 |
| POWER | -7.5 | -7.4 |
CARUTHERSVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Caruthersville finished the job, as Central (New Madrid County) and Caruthersville finished 24-68. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-27 final.
The actual margin was 44 points versus MOFO's 2.2-point projection. That produced a 41.8-point margin error, with score errors of 0.4 for Central (New Madrid County) and 41.4 for Caruthersville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CARUTHERSVILLE
MOFO leans toward Caruthersville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.2-point margin, with Caruthersville carrying a 57% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Caruthersville enters at 28.0 points per game compared with 22.0 for Central (New Madrid County). Central (New Madrid County)'s defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +10.6 for Caruthersville and +2.5 for Central (New Madrid County). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Caruthersville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Caruthersville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.