TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lebanon | Carthage |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 25.9 | 28.2 |
| PA / GAME | 30.2 | 26.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -16.7 | -9.5 |
| SOS | +12.6 | +13.4 |
| POWER | -12.4 | -4.8 |
CARTHAGE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Carthage finished the job, as Lebanon and Carthage finished 12-49. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-30 final.
The actual margin was 37 points versus MOFO's 4.8-point projection. That produced a 32.2-point margin error, with score errors of 13.2 for Lebanon and 18.9 for Carthage.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CARTHAGE
MOFO leans toward Carthage because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.8-point margin, with Carthage carrying a 66% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Carthage enters at 28.2 points per game compared with 25.9 for Lebanon. Carthage also allows 3.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +13.4 for Carthage and +12.6 for Lebanon. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Carthage owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Carthage has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.