TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Nevada | Carl Junction |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 28.0 | 31.9 |
| PA / GAME | 22.9 | 21.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +6.6 | +22.7 |
| SOS | -1.7 | -15.2 |
| POWER | +6.0 | +17.4 |
NEVADA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Nevada finished the job, as Nevada and Carl Junction finished 32-28. MOFO's pick of Carl Junction missed; the model had projected a 24-28 final.
The actual margin was 4 points versus MOFO's 4.5-point projection. That produced a 8.5-point margin error, with score errors of 8.1 for Nevada and 0.4 for Carl Junction.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CARL JUNCTION
MOFO leans toward Carl Junction because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.5-point margin, with Carl Junction carrying a 65% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Carl Junction enters at 31.9 points per game compared with 28.0 for Nevada. Carl Junction also allows 1.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -15.2 for Carl Junction and -1.7 for Nevada. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Carl Junction owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Nevada has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.