TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | De Smet Jesuit | Cardinal Ritter |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 30.2 | 30.5 |
| PA / GAME | 24.8 | 20.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +13.7 | +13.2 |
| SOS | -5.5 | -3.5 |
| POWER | +11.8 | +12.0 |
DE SMET JESUIT WRITES THE FINAL WORD
De Smet Jesuit finished the job, as De Smet Jesuit and Cardinal Ritter finished 49-48. MOFO's pick of Cardinal Ritter missed; the model had projected a 26-28 final.
The actual margin was 1 points versus MOFO's 2.2-point projection. That produced a 3.2-point margin error, with score errors of 23.5 for De Smet Jesuit and 20.3 for Cardinal Ritter.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CARDINAL RITTER
MOFO leans toward Cardinal Ritter because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.2-point margin, with Cardinal Ritter carrying a 57% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Cardinal Ritter enters at 30.5 points per game compared with 30.2 for De Smet Jesuit. Cardinal Ritter also allows 3.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.5 for Cardinal Ritter and -5.5 for De Smet Jesuit. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Cardinal Ritter owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Cardinal Ritter has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.