TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lawson | Cameron |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 30.9 | 23.4 |
| PA / GAME | 25.4 | 31.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +6.8 | -18.2 |
| SOS | -0.7 | +15.4 |
| POWER | +6.6 | -12.8 |
LAWSON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lawson finished the job, as Lawson and Cameron finished 34-28. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 33-23 final.
The actual margin was 6 points versus MOFO's 10.6-point projection. That produced a 4.6-point margin error, with score errors of 0.8 for Lawson and 5.4 for Cameron.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LAWSON
MOFO leans toward Lawson because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 19.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.6-point margin, with Lawson carrying a 80% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lawson enters at 30.9 points per game compared with 23.4 for Cameron. Lawson also allows 6.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.7 for Lawson and +15.4 for Cameron. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Lawson owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Cameron has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 19.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.