TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Palmyra | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 29.2 | 29.5 |
| PA / GAME | 23.6 | 27.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +3.0 | +17.0 |
| SOS | +2.3 | -13.9 |
| POWER | +3.8 | +12.1 |
PALMYRA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Palmyra finished the job, as Palmyra and Bowling Green finished 56-20. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-27 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 0.6-point projection. That produced a 35.4-point margin error, with score errors of 28.2 for Palmyra and 7.1 for Bowling Green.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PALMYRA
MOFO leans toward Palmyra because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.6-point margin, with Palmyra carrying a 52% win probability.
Bowling Green actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Palmyra also allows 3.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.3 for Palmyra and -13.9 for Bowling Green. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Bowling Green owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Palmyra has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.