TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Central (St. Joseph) | Benton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 24.4 | 23.2 |
| PA / GAME | 29.5 | 26.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -12.1 | +0.3 |
| SOS | +4.4 | -4.8 |
| POWER | -10.6 | -1.4 |
CENTRAL (ST. JOSEPH) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Central (St. Joseph) finished the job, as Central (St. Joseph) and Benton finished 47-8. MOFO's pick of Benton missed; the model had projected a 25-27 final.
The actual margin was 39 points versus MOFO's 2.4-point projection. That produced a 41.4-point margin error, with score errors of 22.2 for Central (St. Joseph) and 19.2 for Benton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BENTON
MOFO leans toward Benton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.4-point margin, with Benton carrying a 58% win probability.
Central (St. Joseph) actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Benton also allows 2.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.8 for Benton and +4.4 for Central (St. Joseph). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Central (St. Joseph) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Central (St. Joseph) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.