TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Capital City | Battle |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 25.9 | 16.2 |
| PA / GAME | 28.9 | 36.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -16.5 | -31.6 |
| SOS | +14.7 | +17.1 |
| POWER | -11.4 | -25.6 |
CAPITAL CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Capital City finished the job, as Capital City and Battle finished 38-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 33-21 final.
The actual margin was 38 points versus MOFO's 11.7-point projection. That produced a 26.3-point margin error, with score errors of 5.3 for Capital City and 21.0 for Battle.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CAPITAL CITY
MOFO leans toward Capital City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 14.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 11.7-point margin, with Capital City carrying a 83% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Capital City enters at 25.9 points per game compared with 16.2 for Battle. Capital City also allows 7.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +14.7 for Capital City and +17.1 for Battle. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Capital City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Battle has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 14.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.