TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Logan-Rogersville | Ava |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 34.1 | 27.4 |
| PA / GAME | 23.3 | 25.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +22.6 | +2.8 |
| SOS | -15.5 | -1.1 |
| POWER | +17.2 | +2.4 |
LOGAN-ROGERSVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Logan-Rogersville finished the job, as Logan-Rogersville and Ava finished 55-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 31-24 final.
The actual margin was 55 points versus MOFO's 7.3-point projection. That produced a 47.7-point margin error, with score errors of 23.7 for Logan-Rogersville and 24.0 for Ava.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LOGAN-ROGERSVILLE
MOFO leans toward Logan-Rogersville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 14.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.3-point margin, with Logan-Rogersville carrying a 72% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Logan-Rogersville enters at 34.1 points per game compared with 27.4 for Ava. Logan-Rogersville also allows 2.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -15.5 for Logan-Rogersville and -1.1 for Ava. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Logan-Rogersville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ava has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 14.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.