TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Cassville | Aurora |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 32.6 | 21.0 |
| PA / GAME | 24.3 | 36.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +19.0 | -28.7 |
| SOS | -10.6 | +17.0 |
| POWER | +15.3 | -22.8 |
CASSVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Cassville finished the job, as Cassville and Aurora finished 44-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 38-19 final.
The actual margin was 44 points versus MOFO's 19.1-point projection. That produced a 24.9-point margin error, with score errors of 5.9 for Cassville and 19.0 for Aurora.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CASSVILLE
MOFO leans toward Cassville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 38.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 19.1-point margin, with Cassville carrying a 93% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Cassville enters at 32.6 points per game compared with 21.0 for Aurora. Cassville also allows 11.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.6 for Cassville and +17.0 for Aurora. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Cassville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Aurora has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 38.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.