TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Drexel | Appleton City |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 32.0 | 41.6 |
| PA / GAME | 29.0 | 36.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | +2.2 | -6.8 |
| SOS | -0.7 | +8.7 |
| POWER | +1.9 | -3.8 |
APPLETON CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Appleton City finished the job, as Drexel and Appleton City finished 8-52. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 35-35 final.
The actual margin was 44 points versus MOFO's 0.3-point projection. That produced a 43.7-point margin error, with score errors of 26.5 for Drexel and 17.1 for Appleton City.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD APPLETON CITY
MOFO leans toward Appleton City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.3-point margin, with Appleton City carrying a 51% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Appleton City enters at 41.6 points per game compared with 32.0 for Drexel. Drexel's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +8.7 for Appleton City and -0.7 for Drexel. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Appleton City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Appleton City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.