TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Crystal City | Affton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PF / GAME | 21.6 | 17.1 |
| PA / GAME | 33.7 | 34.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -26.2 | -28.7 |
| SOS | +10.9 | +12.8 |
| POWER | -22.4 | -24.2 |
AFFTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Affton finished the job, as Crystal City and Affton finished 14-32. MOFO's pick of Crystal City missed; the model had projected a 28-25 final.
The actual margin was 18 points versus MOFO's 3.2-point projection. That produced a 21.2-point margin error, with score errors of 14.4 for Crystal City and 6.8 for Affton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CRYSTAL CITY
MOFO leans toward Crystal City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.2-point margin, with Crystal City carrying a 60% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Crystal City enters at 21.6 points per game compared with 17.1 for Affton. Crystal City also allows 1.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +10.9 for Crystal City and +12.8 for Affton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Crystal City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Affton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.