TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Strafford | Adrian |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| PF / GAME | 17.2 | 27.9 |
| PA / GAME | 32.3 | 22.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -27.2 | +4.8 |
| SOS | +15.0 | -1.2 |
| POWER | -22.0 | +4.3 |
STRAFFORD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Strafford finished the job, as Strafford and Adrian finished 23-7. MOFO's pick of Adrian missed; the model had projected a 17-33 final.
The actual margin was 16 points versus MOFO's 15.2-point projection. That produced a 31.2-point margin error, with score errors of 5.5 for Strafford and 25.7 for Adrian.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ADRIAN
MOFO leans toward Adrian because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 26.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 15.2-point margin, with Adrian carrying a 88% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Adrian enters at 27.9 points per game compared with 17.2 for Strafford. Adrian also allows 9.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.2 for Adrian and +15.0 for Strafford. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Adrian owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Strafford has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 26.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.