TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Crystal City | Winfield |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 22.5 | 19.6 |
| PA / GAME | 30.1 | 25.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -9.6 | -4.9 |
| SOS | -5.6 | -3.9 |
| POWER | -11.6 | -6.3 |
WINFIELD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Winfield finished the job, as Crystal City and Winfield finished 12-49. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 23-25 final.
The actual margin was 37 points versus MOFO's 2.3-point projection. That produced a 34.7-point margin error, with score errors of 11.2 for Crystal City and 23.5 for Winfield.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WINFIELD
MOFO leans toward Winfield because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.3-point margin, with Winfield carrying a 57% win probability.
Crystal City actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Winfield also allows 4.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.9 for Winfield and -5.6 for Crystal City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Crystal City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Winfield has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.