TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Willard | Waynesville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 21.0 | 16.4 |
| PA / GAME | 37.9 | 41.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | -17.4 | -22.1 |
| SOS | +1.0 | +0.2 |
| POWER | -17.0 | -22.0 |
WILLARD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Willard finished the job, as Willard and Waynesville finished 34-21. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 32-27 final.
The actual margin was 13 points versus MOFO's 5.0-point projection. That produced a 8.0-point margin error, with score errors of 2.4 for Willard and 5.6 for Waynesville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WILLARD
MOFO leans toward Willard because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.0-point margin, with Willard carrying a 66% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Willard enters at 21.0 points per game compared with 16.4 for Waynesville. Willard also allows 3.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.0 for Willard and +0.2 for Waynesville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Willard owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Willard has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.