TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Wright City | Warrenton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 26.2 | 24.5 |
| PA / GAME | 24.4 | 23.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +0.9 | +0.5 |
| SOS | -1.8 | -0.6 |
| POWER | +0.2 | +0.3 |
WARRENTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Warrenton finished the job, as Wright City and Warrenton finished 7-34. MOFO's pick of Wright City missed; the model had projected a 25-24 final.
The actual margin was 27 points versus MOFO's 0.4-point projection. That produced a 27.4-point margin error, with score errors of 17.9 for Wright City and 9.5 for Warrenton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WRIGHT CITY
MOFO leans toward Wright City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.4-point margin, with Wright City carrying a 51% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Wright City enters at 26.2 points per game compared with 24.5 for Warrenton. Warrenton's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.8 for Wright City and -0.6 for Warrenton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Wright City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Warrenton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.