TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Eureka | Troy Buchanan |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 27.9 | 34.8 |
| PA / GAME | 18.4 | 21.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +9.1 | +11.7 |
| SOS | -0.2 | -2.3 |
| POWER | +9.1 | +10.9 |
EUREKA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Eureka finished the job, as Eureka and Troy Buchanan finished 49-48. MOFO's pick of Troy Buchanan missed; the model had projected a 25-27 final.
The actual margin was 1 points versus MOFO's 2.2-point projection. That produced a 3.2-point margin error, with score errors of 24.4 for Eureka and 21.2 for Troy Buchanan.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD TROY BUCHANAN
MOFO leans toward Troy Buchanan because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.2-point margin, with Troy Buchanan carrying a 57% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Troy Buchanan enters at 34.8 points per game compared with 27.9 for Eureka. Eureka's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.3 for Troy Buchanan and -0.2 for Eureka. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Troy Buchanan owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Eureka has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.