TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | North Andrew | Tarkio |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 29.2 | 28.0 |
| PA / GAME | 33.2 | 31.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -1.9 | -0.8 |
| SOS | -2.4 | +0.3 |
| POWER | -2.7 | -0.7 |
NORTH ANDREW WRITES THE FINAL WORD
North Andrew finished the job, as North Andrew and Tarkio finished 46-36. MOFO's pick of Tarkio missed; the model had projected a 30-31 final.
The actual margin was 10 points versus MOFO's 1.0-point projection. That produced a 11.0-point margin error, with score errors of 16.1 for North Andrew and 5.1 for Tarkio.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD TARKIO
MOFO leans toward Tarkio because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.0-point margin, with Tarkio carrying a 53% win probability.
North Andrew actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Tarkio also allows 2.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.3 for Tarkio and -2.4 for North Andrew. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01North Andrew owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Tarkio has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 2.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.