TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Rolla | Sullivan |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 25.3 | 24.3 |
| PA / GAME | 24.2 | 22.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -0.7 | +0.3 |
| SOS | -0.1 | -1.7 |
| POWER | -0.7 | -0.3 |
SULLIVAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Sullivan finished the job, as Rolla and Sullivan finished 20-50. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-24 final.
The actual margin was 30 points versus MOFO's 0.4-point projection. That produced a 29.6-point margin error, with score errors of 3.8 for Rolla and 25.7 for Sullivan.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SULLIVAN
MOFO leans toward Sullivan because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.4-point margin, with Sullivan carrying a 51% win probability.
Rolla actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Sullivan also allows 1.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.7 for Sullivan and -0.1 for Rolla. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Rolla owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Rolla has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.