TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Carl Junction | Strafford |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 29.9 | 18.4 |
| PA / GAME | 25.3 | 30.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +4.3 | -11.1 |
| SOS | -0.8 | +0.5 |
| POWER | +4.0 | -10.9 |
CARL JUNCTION WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Carl Junction finished the job, as Carl Junction and Strafford finished 40-3. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 32-20 final.
The actual margin was 37 points versus MOFO's 11.6-point projection. That produced a 25.4-point margin error, with score errors of 8.2 for Carl Junction and 17.2 for Strafford.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CARL JUNCTION
MOFO leans toward Carl Junction because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 14.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 11.6-point margin, with Carl Junction carrying a 82% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Carl Junction enters at 29.9 points per game compared with 18.4 for Strafford. Carl Junction also allows 5.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.8 for Carl Junction and +0.5 for Strafford. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Carl Junction owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Strafford has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 14.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.