TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | El Dorado Springs | Stockton with Sheldon |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 23.9 | 27.6 |
| PA / GAME | 24.1 | 26.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -4.2 | +1.2 |
| SOS | -4.2 | +0.0 |
| POWER | -5.7 | +1.2 |
STOCKTON WITH SHELDON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Stockton with Sheldon finished the job, as El Dorado Springs and Stockton with Sheldon finished 2-38. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-27 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 2.2-point projection. That produced a 33.8-point margin error, with score errors of 22.5 for El Dorado Springs and 11.3 for Stockton with Sheldon.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD STOCKTON WITH SHELDON
MOFO leans toward Stockton with Sheldon because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.2-point margin, with Stockton with Sheldon carrying a 57% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Stockton with Sheldon enters at 27.6 points per game compared with 23.9 for El Dorado Springs. El Dorado Springs's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.0 for Stockton with Sheldon and -4.2 for El Dorado Springs. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Stockton with Sheldon owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Stockton with Sheldon has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.