TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Dexter | Ste. Genevieve |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 32.9 | 29.9 |
| PA / GAME | 17.4 | 21.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +13.9 | +8.3 |
| SOS | -4.2 | +1.1 |
| POWER | +12.4 | +8.6 |
STE. GENEVIEVE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ste. Genevieve finished the job, as Dexter and Ste. Genevieve finished 7-32. MOFO's pick of Dexter missed; the model had projected a 28-23 final.
The actual margin was 25 points versus MOFO's 4.3-point projection. That produced a 29.3-point margin error, with score errors of 20.6 for Dexter and 8.7 for Ste. Genevieve.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD DEXTER
MOFO leans toward Dexter because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.3-point margin, with Dexter carrying a 64% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Dexter enters at 32.9 points per game compared with 29.9 for Ste. Genevieve. Dexter also allows 4.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.2 for Dexter and +1.1 for Ste. Genevieve. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Dexter owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ste. Genevieve has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.