TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Elmhurst-IC Catholic (IL) | St. Mary's South Side |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 27.8 | 25.6 |
| PA / GAME | 22.2 | 23.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +16.9 | +2.5 |
| SOS | +3.3 | +2.2 |
| POWER | +18.0 | +3.3 |
ELMHURST-IC CATHOLIC (IL) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Elmhurst-IC Catholic (IL) finished the job, as Elmhurst-IC Catholic (IL) and St. Mary's South Side finished 42-14. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-22 final.
The actual margin was 28 points versus MOFO's 4.8-point projection. That produced a 23.2-point margin error, with score errors of 15.0 for Elmhurst-IC Catholic (IL) and 8.2 for St. Mary's South Side.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ELMHURST-IC CATHOLIC (IL)
MOFO leans toward Elmhurst-IC Catholic (IL) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 14.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.8-point margin, with Elmhurst-IC Catholic (IL) carrying a 65% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Elmhurst-IC Catholic (IL) enters at 27.8 points per game compared with 25.6 for St. Mary's South Side. Elmhurst-IC Catholic (IL) also allows 0.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.3 for Elmhurst-IC Catholic (IL) and +2.2 for St. Mary's South Side. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Elmhurst-IC Catholic (IL) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Elmhurst-IC Catholic (IL) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 14.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.