TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Salem | St. James |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 18.9 | 22.5 |
| PA / GAME | 28.1 | 23.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -7.3 | -1.8 |
| SOS | -1.8 | -1.8 |
| POWER | -7.9 | -2.4 |
ST. JAMES WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. James finished the job, as Salem and St. James finished 8-23. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 20-26 final.
The actual margin was 15 points versus MOFO's 5.5-point projection. That produced a 9.5-point margin error, with score errors of 12.4 for Salem and 2.9 for St. James.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. JAMES
MOFO leans toward St. James because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.5-point margin, with St. James carrying a 67% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. James enters at 22.5 points per game compared with 18.9 for Salem. St. James also allows 4.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.8 for St. James and -1.8 for Salem. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01St. James owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Salem has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.