TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Pattonsburg | South Nodaway |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 43.4 | 32.0 |
| PA / GAME | 35.3 | 35.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | +5.7 | -0.1 |
| SOS | -1.3 | -1.8 |
| POWER | +5.3 | -0.8 |
SOUTH NODAWAY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
South Nodaway finished the job, as Pattonsburg and South Nodaway finished 42-72. MOFO's pick of Pattonsburg missed; the model had projected a 40-33 final.
The actual margin was 30 points versus MOFO's 6.9-point projection. That produced a 36.9-point margin error, with score errors of 2.1 for Pattonsburg and 39.0 for South Nodaway.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PATTONSBURG
MOFO leans toward Pattonsburg because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.9-point margin, with Pattonsburg carrying a 72% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Pattonsburg enters at 43.4 points per game compared with 32.0 for South Nodaway. South Nodaway's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.3 for Pattonsburg and -1.8 for South Nodaway. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Pattonsburg owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Pattonsburg has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.