TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Stanberry | South Holt |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 26.7 | 27.1 |
| PA / GAME | 46.6 | 33.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -17.0 | -6.4 |
| SOS | -0.9 | -0.8 |
| POWER | -17.3 | -6.6 |
STANBERRY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Stanberry finished the job, as Stanberry and South Holt finished 88-70. MOFO's pick of South Holt missed; the model had projected a 29-38 final.
The actual margin was 18 points versus MOFO's 9.1-point projection. That produced a 27.1-point margin error, with score errors of 59.1 for Stanberry and 32.0 for South Holt.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SOUTH HOLT
MOFO leans toward South Holt because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.1-point margin, with South Holt carrying a 77% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: South Holt enters at 27.1 points per game compared with 26.7 for Stanberry. South Holt also allows 13.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.8 for South Holt and -0.9 for Stanberry. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01South Holt owns the stronger scoring profile.
02South Holt has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.