TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Harrisonville | Smithville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 26.7 | 31.2 |
| PA / GAME | 22.8 | 19.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +4.1 | +10.5 |
| SOS | -1.0 | -4.1 |
| POWER | +3.7 | +9.0 |
SMITHVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Smithville finished the job, as Harrisonville and Smithville finished 14-35. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 23-28 final.
The actual margin was 21 points versus MOFO's 4.8-point projection. That produced a 16.2-point margin error, with score errors of 8.8 for Harrisonville and 7.5 for Smithville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SMITHVILLE
MOFO leans toward Smithville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.8-point margin, with Smithville carrying a 65% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Smithville enters at 31.2 points per game compared with 26.7 for Harrisonville. Smithville also allows 3.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.1 for Smithville and -1.0 for Harrisonville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Smithville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Harrisonville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.