TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Wellington-Napoleon | Slater |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 41.1 | 27.7 |
| PA / GAME | 29.5 | 43.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +9.1 | -15.9 |
| SOS | +1.1 | +0.7 |
| POWER | +9.5 | -15.6 |
WELLINGTON-NAPOLEON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Wellington-Napoleon finished the job, as Wellington-Napoleon and Slater finished 42-14. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 45-26 final.
The actual margin was 28 points versus MOFO's 19.0-point projection. That produced a 9.0-point margin error, with score errors of 2.8 for Wellington-Napoleon and 11.8 for Slater.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WELLINGTON-NAPOLEON
MOFO leans toward Wellington-Napoleon because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 25.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 19.0-point margin, with Wellington-Napoleon carrying a 93% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Wellington-Napoleon enters at 41.1 points per game compared with 27.7 for Slater. Wellington-Napoleon also allows 13.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.1 for Wellington-Napoleon and +0.7 for Slater. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Wellington-Napoleon owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Wellington-Napoleon has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 25.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.