TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Crest Ridge with Chilhowee | Sherwood |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 24.8 | 22.6 |
| PA / GAME | 29.1 | 26.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -6.2 | -2.6 |
| SOS | -0.8 | -3.7 |
| POWER | -6.5 | -3.9 |
SHERWOOD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Sherwood finished the job, as Crest Ridge with Chilhowee and Sherwood finished 6-19. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-26 final.
The actual margin was 13 points versus MOFO's 0.7-point projection. That produced a 12.3-point margin error, with score errors of 19.4 for Crest Ridge with Chilhowee and 7.1 for Sherwood.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SHERWOOD
MOFO leans toward Sherwood because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.7-point margin, with Sherwood carrying a 52% win probability.
Crest Ridge with Chilhowee actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Sherwood also allows 2.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.7 for Sherwood and -0.8 for Crest Ridge with Chilhowee. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Crest Ridge with Chilhowee owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Crest Ridge with Chilhowee has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 2.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.