TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Commerce (Okla.) | Sarcoxie |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 24.0 | 23.6 |
| PA / GAME | 24.0 | 25.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | +0.0 | -0.6 |
| SOS | +0.0 | -1.1 |
| POWER | +0.0 | -1.0 |
SARCOXIE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Sarcoxie finished the job, as Commerce (Okla.) and Sarcoxie finished 0-35. MOFO's pick of Commerce (Okla.) missed; the model had projected a 25-24 final.
The actual margin was 35 points versus MOFO's 1.0-point projection. That produced a 36.0-point margin error, with score errors of 24.7 for Commerce (Okla.) and 11.3 for Sarcoxie.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD COMMERCE (OKLA.)
MOFO leans toward Commerce (Okla.) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.0-point margin, with Commerce (Okla.) carrying a 53% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Commerce (Okla.) enters at 24.0 points per game compared with 23.6 for Sarcoxie. Commerce (Okla.) also allows 1.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.0 for Commerce (Okla.) and -1.1 for Sarcoxie. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low — no season data.
01Commerce (Okla.) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Commerce (Okla.) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.