TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Keytesville | Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 16.6 | 23.5 |
| PA / GAME | 36.9 | 40.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | -16.5 | -13.8 |
| SOS | -1.8 | +0.3 |
| POWER | -17.2 | -13.7 |
SANTA FE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Santa Fe finished the job, as Keytesville and Santa Fe finished 8-63. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-31 final.
The actual margin was 55 points versus MOFO's 2.7-point projection. That produced a 52.3-point margin error, with score errors of 19.9 for Keytesville and 32.4 for Santa Fe.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SANTA FE
MOFO leans toward Santa Fe because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.7-point margin, with Santa Fe carrying a 59% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Santa Fe enters at 23.5 points per game compared with 16.6 for Keytesville. Keytesville's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.3 for Santa Fe and -1.8 for Keytesville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Santa Fe owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Santa Fe has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.