ST. PIUS X (KANSAS CITY) WRITES THE FINAL WORD

St. Pius X (Kansas City) finished the job, as St. Pius X (Kansas City) and Rockhurst finished 23-17. MOFO's pick of Rockhurst missed; the model had projected a 22-28 final.

The actual margin was 6 points versus MOFO's 6.0-point projection. That produced a 12.0-point margin error, with score errors of 0.7 for St. Pius X (Kansas City) and 11.3 for Rockhurst.

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ROCKHURST

MOFO leans toward Rockhurst because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.0-point margin, with Rockhurst carrying a 69% win probability.

The clearest separator is scoring: Rockhurst enters at 28.8 points per game compared with 26.4 for St. Pius X (Kansas City). Rockhurst also allows 6.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.

Strength of schedule checks in at -0.7 for Rockhurst and +3.1 for St. Pius X (Kansas City). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.