TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Oak Grove | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 19.9 | 29.0 |
| PA / GAME | 24.0 | 22.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -7.2 | +4.3 |
| SOS | +0.1 | -1.5 |
| POWER | -7.2 | +3.8 |
RICHMOND WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Richmond finished the job, as Oak Grove and Richmond finished 10-30. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 20-28 final.
The actual margin was 20 points versus MOFO's 7.7-point projection. That produced a 12.3-point margin error, with score errors of 10.0 for Oak Grove and 2.3 for Richmond.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD RICHMOND
MOFO leans toward Richmond because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.7-point margin, with Richmond carrying a 74% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Richmond enters at 29.0 points per game compared with 19.9 for Oak Grove. Richmond also allows 1.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.5 for Richmond and +0.1 for Oak Grove. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Richmond owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Oak Grove has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.