TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Clair | Potosi |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 29.5 | 29.6 |
| PA / GAME | 25.6 | 26.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +2.8 | +3.9 |
| SOS | -0.8 | +1.0 |
| POWER | +2.5 | +4.3 |
POTOSI WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Potosi finished the job, as St. Clair and Potosi finished 0-12. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-28 final.
The actual margin was 12 points versus MOFO's 0.2-point projection. That produced a 11.8-point margin error, with score errors of 27.7 for St. Clair and 15.8 for Potosi.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD POTOSI
MOFO leans toward Potosi because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.2-point margin, with Potosi carrying a 51% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Potosi enters at 29.6 points per game compared with 29.5 for St. Clair. St. Clair's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.0 for Potosi and -0.8 for St. Clair. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Potosi owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Potosi has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.