TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Doniphan | Piggott (Ark.) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 24.1 | 28.4 |
| PA / GAME | 27.2 | 30.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -5.8 | -6.5 |
| SOS | -6.9 | -8.2 |
| POWER | -8.2 | -9.4 |
DONIPHAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Doniphan finished the job, as Doniphan and Piggott (Ark.) finished 40-14. MOFO's pick of Piggott (Ark.) missed; the model had projected a 28-28 final.
The actual margin was 26 points versus MOFO's 0.2-point projection. That produced a 26.2-point margin error, with score errors of 12.5 for Doniphan and 13.7 for Piggott (Ark.).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PIGGOTT (ARK.)
MOFO leans toward Piggott (Ark.) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.2-point margin, with Piggott (Ark.) carrying a 51% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Piggott (Ark.) enters at 28.4 points per game compared with 24.1 for Doniphan. Doniphan's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -8.2 for Piggott (Ark.) and -6.9 for Doniphan. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Piggott (Ark.) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Doniphan has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.