TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Houston | Pierce City |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 29.4 | 26.9 |
| PA / GAME | 29.7 | 30.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -4.8 | -5.1 |
| SOS | -0.4 | -0.3 |
| POWER | -5.0 | -5.2 |
PIERCE CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Pierce City finished the job, as Houston and Pierce City finished 19-41. MOFO's pick of Houston missed; the model had projected a 30-28 final.
The actual margin was 22 points versus MOFO's 1.7-point projection. That produced a 23.7-point margin error, with score errors of 10.9 for Houston and 12.7 for Pierce City.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HOUSTON
MOFO leans toward Houston because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.7-point margin, with Houston carrying a 56% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Houston enters at 29.4 points per game compared with 26.9 for Pierce City. Houston also allows 0.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.4 for Houston and -0.3 for Pierce City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Houston owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Pierce City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.