TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Fredericktown | Perryville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 20.0 | 27.9 |
| PA / GAME | 31.8 | 23.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -8.2 | +5.4 |
| SOS | +0.2 | -3.6 |
| POWER | -8.1 | +4.2 |
PERRYVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Perryville finished the job, as Fredericktown and Perryville finished 0-16. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 20-31 final.
The actual margin was 16 points versus MOFO's 10.8-point projection. That produced a 5.2-point margin error, with score errors of 20.4 for Fredericktown and 15.2 for Perryville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PERRYVILLE
MOFO leans toward Perryville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.8-point margin, with Perryville carrying a 81% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Perryville enters at 27.9 points per game compared with 20.0 for Fredericktown. Perryville also allows 8.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.6 for Perryville and +0.2 for Fredericktown. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Perryville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Fredericktown has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.