TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lafayette County | Penney |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 24.3 | 22.4 |
| PA / GAME | 29.1 | 26.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -2.2 | -1.9 |
| SOS | +0.8 | -0.8 |
| POWER | -1.9 | -2.2 |
PENNEY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Penney finished the job, as Lafayette County and Penney finished 14-15. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-26 final.
The actual margin was 1 points versus MOFO's 0.1-point projection. That produced a 0.9-point margin error, with score errors of 11.6 for Lafayette County and 10.7 for Penney.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PENNEY
MOFO leans toward Penney because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.1-point margin, with Penney carrying a 50% win probability.
Lafayette County actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Penney also allows 2.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.8 for Penney and +0.8 for Lafayette County. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Lafayette County owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lafayette County has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.