ST. FRANCIS BORGIA WRITES THE FINAL WORD

St. Francis Borgia finished the job, as St. Francis Borgia and Pacific finished 41-14. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-24 final.

The actual margin was 27 points versus MOFO's 1.8-point projection. That produced a 25.2-point margin error, with score errors of 15.0 for St. Francis Borgia and 10.2 for Pacific.

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. FRANCIS BORGIA

MOFO leans toward St. Francis Borgia because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.8-point margin, with St. Francis Borgia carrying a 56% win probability.

The clearest separator is scoring: St. Francis Borgia enters at 26.1 points per game compared with 25.7 for Pacific. St. Francis Borgia also allows 2.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.

Strength of schedule checks in at +0.7 for St. Francis Borgia and -1.0 for Pacific. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.