TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Neosho | Ozark |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 31.3 | 28.4 |
| PA / GAME | 28.9 | 32.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -0.2 | -5.8 |
| SOS | -0.2 | +0.1 |
| POWER | -0.3 | -5.8 |
NEOSHO WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Neosho finished the job, as Neosho and Ozark finished 49-23. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 32-28 final.
The actual margin was 26 points versus MOFO's 4.4-point projection. That produced a 21.6-point margin error, with score errors of 16.5 for Neosho and 5.1 for Ozark.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NEOSHO
MOFO leans toward Neosho because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.4-point margin, with Neosho carrying a 64% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Neosho enters at 31.3 points per game compared with 28.4 for Ozark. Neosho also allows 3.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.2 for Neosho and +0.1 for Ozark. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Neosho owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ozark has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.