TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Orrick | Northland Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 24.9 | 23.4 |
| PA / GAME | 33.0 | 31.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -9.4 | -8.3 |
| SOS | +0.3 | -6.5 |
| POWER | -9.2 | -10.6 |
ORRICK WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Orrick finished the job, as Orrick and Northland Christian finished 34-28. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-28 final.
The actual margin was 6 points versus MOFO's 0.6-point projection. That produced a 5.4-point margin error, with score errors of 5.4 for Orrick and 0.1 for Northland Christian.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ORRICK
MOFO leans toward Orrick because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.6-point margin, with Orrick carrying a 52% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Orrick enters at 24.9 points per game compared with 23.4 for Northland Christian. Northland Christian's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.3 for Orrick and -6.5 for Northland Christian. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Orrick owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Orrick has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.