TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Nevada | Mt. Vernon |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 28.6 | 24.9 |
| PA / GAME | 22.1 | 25.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +6.5 | +0.9 |
| SOS | +0.0 | +0.9 |
| POWER | +6.5 | +1.2 |
NEVADA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Nevada finished the job, as Nevada and Mt. Vernon finished 24-20. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-23 final.
The actual margin was 4 points versus MOFO's 4.6-point projection. That produced a 0.6-point margin error, with score errors of 3.5 for Nevada and 3.0 for Mt. Vernon.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NEVADA
MOFO leans toward Nevada because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.6-point margin, with Nevada carrying a 65% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Nevada enters at 28.6 points per game compared with 24.9 for Mt. Vernon. Nevada also allows 3.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.0 for Nevada and +0.9 for Mt. Vernon. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Nevada owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Mt. Vernon has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.