TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Fair Grove | Mountain Grove |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 28.0 | 33.7 |
| PA / GAME | 25.7 | 20.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +0.9 | +10.0 |
| SOS | +1.1 | +0.1 |
| POWER | +1.3 | +10.0 |
FAIR GROVE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Fair Grove finished the job, as Fair Grove and Mountain Grove finished 25-13. MOFO's pick of Mountain Grove missed; the model had projected a 23-31 final.
The actual margin was 12 points versus MOFO's 7.1-point projection. That produced a 19.1-point margin error, with score errors of 1.5 for Fair Grove and 17.6 for Mountain Grove.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MOUNTAIN GROVE
MOFO leans toward Mountain Grove because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.1-point margin, with Mountain Grove carrying a 72% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Mountain Grove enters at 33.7 points per game compared with 28.0 for Fair Grove. Mountain Grove also allows 4.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.1 for Mountain Grove and +1.1 for Fair Grove. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Mountain Grove owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Fair Grove has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.