TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hermann | Montgomery County |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 19.3 | 28.2 |
| PA / GAME | 29.3 | 19.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -11.9 | +9.8 |
| SOS | -1.1 | -2.0 |
| POWER | -12.3 | +9.1 |
MONTGOMERY COUNTY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Montgomery County finished the job, as Hermann and Montgomery County finished 6-36. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 17-31 final.
The actual margin was 30 points versus MOFO's 13.9-point projection. That produced a 16.1-point margin error, with score errors of 11.2 for Hermann and 4.9 for Montgomery County.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MONTGOMERY COUNTY
MOFO leans toward Montgomery County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 21.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 13.9-point margin, with Montgomery County carrying a 86% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Montgomery County enters at 28.2 points per game compared with 19.3 for Hermann. Montgomery County also allows 9.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.0 for Montgomery County and -1.1 for Hermann. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Montgomery County owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hermann has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 21.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.