TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Centralia | Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 32.0 | 25.5 |
| PA / GAME | 21.2 | 25.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +11.3 | -1.7 |
| SOS | -0.2 | +3.3 |
| POWER | +11.2 | -0.6 |
CENTRALIA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Centralia finished the job, as Centralia and Mexico finished 28-7. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-22 final.
The actual margin was 21 points versus MOFO's 8.0-point projection. That produced a 13.0-point margin error, with score errors of 2.0 for Centralia and 15.1 for Mexico.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CENTRALIA
MOFO leans toward Centralia because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.0-point margin, with Centralia carrying a 74% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Centralia enters at 32.0 points per game compared with 25.5 for Mexico. Centralia also allows 4.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.2 for Centralia and +3.3 for Mexico. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01Centralia owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Mexico has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.