TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | University City | Lutheran St. Charles |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| PF / GAME | 35.1 | 16.4 |
| PA / GAME | 17.4 | 33.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +12.1 | -15.5 |
| SOS | -6.0 | +0.8 |
| POWER | +9.9 | -15.2 |
UNIVERSITY CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
University City finished the job, as University City and Lutheran St. Charles finished 67-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 37-14 final.
The actual margin was 67 points versus MOFO's 22.5-point projection. That produced a 44.5-point margin error, with score errors of 30.3 for University City and 14.3 for Lutheran St. Charles.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD UNIVERSITY CITY
MOFO leans toward University City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 25.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 22.5-point margin, with University City carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: University City enters at 35.1 points per game compared with 16.4 for Lutheran St. Charles. University City also allows 15.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.0 for University City and +0.8 for Lutheran St. Charles. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses preseason prior, the confidence remains low — preseason swag.
01University City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lutheran St. Charles has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 25.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.